A new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press shows the federal Conservatives continue to hold their edge over the governing Liberals in Manitoba.

Support for the Conservatives remains unchanged during the past three months at 37 per cent, while support for the Liberals decreased slightly (from 32% in December to 29% today). One-quarter (25%) would cast a ballot for a federal NDP candidate, with six percent (+1% vs. December) preferring the Greens and a slightly higher proportion (4%, +2 vs. December) saying they wish to vote for another party’s candidate. Overall, 11 per cent of Manitoba adults are undecided.

federal vote intention in Manitoba - March 2021

The Liberals remain the most popular federal choice in Winnipeg, but their edge over the NDP and Conservatives is slightly smaller than it was three months ago. Today, 37 per cent of Winnipeggers would vote for a Liberal candidate, compared to 28 per cent who prefer the NDP and 26 per cent who would opt for the Conservatives. Liberal support remains strongest in south Winnipeg and the northwest, with the Conservatives and NDP statistically tied in northeast Winnipeg and the NDP leading in the Core area. Outside Winnipeg, the Conservatives continue to be endorsed by more than one-half (53%) of voters.

federal vote intention Winnipeg vs. rural Manitoba - March 2021

federal vote intention by area of Winnipeg - March 2021

There continues to be a persistent education gap with university graduates preferring the Liberals, while those with lower levels of educational attainment tend to support the Conservatives. The Conservatives also have more support among male voters, whereas women are slightly more likely to favour the Liberals over the NDP and Conservatives.

About the Probe Research Omnibus

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

Disclosure Statement

Probe Research is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) and confirms that this research fully complies with all CRIC Standards including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more at: https://www.canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/por/


Between March 10th and 26th, 2021 Probe Research surveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000 adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.​

The sample consists of 429 Manitobans randomly recruited via live-agent operator; 321 Manitobans randomly recruited via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and 250 members of Probe Research's online panel. All respondents completed the survey on an online platform.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline and wireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of the province’s population. All data analysis was performed using SPSS statistical analysis software.​