With just a few days left until Manitobans elect a new provincial government, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg finds the incumbent Progressive Conservatives remain the most popular party in the province, although the PC lead has decreased slightly compared to surveys conducted prior to the start of the campaign.

Overall, four-in-ten decided and leaning voters plan to cast ballots for a PC candidate in their riding (40%, down from 42% in June 2019). Three-in-ten would vote for the NDP (29%, +3% vs. June), with slightly fewer than two-in-ten preferring the Liberals (18%, +2%) and one-in-ten opting to vote for the Greens (10%, -4%). Twelve per cent of respondents are undecided.

Probe Research Manitoba tracking results

 

Within Winnipeg, the race remains tight, with one-third of decided and leaning voters planning to cast a ballot for the PCs (33%, +1 vs. June) or the NDP (32%, no change). One-in-five prefer the Liberals (21%, +2%), while slightly more than one-in-ten plan to vote for a Green candidate (12%, -2%). Outside Winnipeg, fully one-half of decided voters (51%) intend to vote for the PCs.

Methodology: Between August 13th and 24th, 2019, Probe Research conducted an online survey of N=1,200 Manitoba adults on behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg. Respondents to the survey were recruited from Probe Research’s proprietary online panel, as well as a national online panel. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that age, regional and gender characteristics properly reflect known attributes of Manitoba’s population based on 2016 Census data. The sample has also been weighted by voting behaviour based on the results of the 2016 provincial election. Because an online panel is a sample of convenience, no statistical margin-of-error can be ascribed. For the purposes of comparison, a probabilistic sample of N=1,200 would have a margin of error of  ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.​

Note: Media outlets reporting on these survey results must attribute them to the survey sponsors (the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg).