Here’s what Manitobans think about _________.

Manitobans are more likely than other Canadians to _______.

At Probe, our whole business has been built on understanding how Manitobans are different from other Canadians - what sets us apart, what makes us unique.

But, more often than not, our views aren’t that different – we’re known as the “middle province” for a reason, after all. There are certain situations – and in many national polls - where claims like the ones above must be interpreted cautiously.

Manitoba accounts for slightly more than three per cent of Canada’s population. This means that even with a really good national sample of 2,000 respondents, there will only about 60 Manitobans answering the survey. Usually, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are lumped together (and sometimes even with Alberta) to provide a result for the “Prairies” – even though our provinces increasingly have very different economies and political cultures.

The general rule of statistical thumb is that if you don’t have at least 100 respondents in a specific category, comparisons with other groups are almost meaningless. The margin of error is just too high. This means that in many national polls, we simply can’t put much stock in the “Manitoba” results when only 40 or 50 Manitobans were actually surveyed. Even within Manitoba, there are significant differences between Winnipeg and the rest of the province (as well as between demographic groups) that cannot be measured in these small samples.

This is a challenging time. Public opinion is fluid and decision-makers need to know how Manitobans are keeping themselves safe, what products and services they are buying, where they’re getting information and how they are feeling.

Many aspects of our service can help Manitoba-based decision-makers know what’s really happening on the ground, including:

• Our proprietary online panel of more than 6,000 Manitobans. This panel is the fastest and most efficient way to uncover what Manitobans are thinking and feeling at any given time. We can turn around custom studies with 600 or 800 Manitoba respondents using this panel in a matter of days.
• Our omnibus survey. While our next Omnibus survey of 1,000 Manitoba adults is scheduled for June, this is the province’s most trusted and recognized research vehicle. Clients can purchase a single question or an entire unit, so it’s also very affordable.
• Independence and neutrality. We are fiercely proud of the fact we are non-partisan and do not conduct research for political parties. This neutrality and independence mean we will always give our partners and the public the straight goods – they can count on us and count on our results to have the highest degree of integrity.
• Superior insight and analysis. Polling is not conducted in a vacuum. Our team looks at data and trends in the broader regional and provincial landscape and applies our expertise to understand what the numbers mean and what you should do with them.