Winnipeg – With a potential autumn election on the horizon, Manitoba voters are gravitating back to the federal Conservative party – especially in the key battleground of Winnipeg.

A Probe Research Inc./Winnipeg Free Press survey of 1,000 Manitobans shows that the Conservative Party now boasts the support of 47 percent of adult citizens, an increase of three percentage points since June. After surging to 26 percent in June, the Liberal Party’s momentum appears to have stalled as it now has the backing of 25 percent of adult Manitobans (-1% since June). Support for the New Democrats remains unchanged at 21 percent, while six percent of citizens would vote for the Green Party (-1%) in a hypothetical federal election. One in ten voters (10%) were undecided or declined to provide a party preference.

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Labels: federal standings, Manitoba politics, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Premier Gary Doer’s sudden retirement as leader of the Manitoba New Democratic Party has not affected the party’s popularity with Manitoba voters, a new Probe Research Inc./Winnipeg Free Press survey finds.

The provincial New Democrats remain the most popular party in the province, with 45 percent of Manitobans stating they would vote for the NDP in a hypothetical provincial election. For the NDP, which will choose a new leader October 17, this represents no change since the last sounding conducted in June 2009.

With the support of 38 percent of decided voters, the Hugh McFadyen-led PCs have increased their popularity by two percentage points and have shrunk the NDP’s advantage from eight percentage points to seven. The Liberals, meanwhile, remain far behind both parties, with just 12 percent of decided voters backing the party led by Jon Gerrard (-2% from June). Four percent of respondents would back other parties not represented in the Legislature, while 15 percent of voters were undecided.

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Labels: Gary Doer, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – As the race for the leadership of the New Democratic Party draws to a close, a new Probe Research Inc./Winnipeg Free Press survey of 1,000 Manitobans reveals that Greg Selinger stands head and shoulders above rival Steve Ashton and former candidate Andrew Swan as the most popular choice for the party leadership and the premier’s chair.

More than one in four Manitoba adults (27%) indicated that Greg Selinger, the province’s finance minister for the past 10 years, is the best candidate to lead the New Democrats and succeed outgoing premier Gary Doer. Just better than one in ten citizens (12%), meanwhile, pointed to Thompson MLA Steve Ashton as the best candidate for the NDP’s top job. Minto MLA Andrew Swan – who bowed out of the race on September 28 – received the backing of nine percent of adult voters. Party member John Boehm, who had announced to some media outlets that he was running for the party’s leadership, received support from only three percent of respondents.

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Labels: Andrew Swan, Greg Selinger, NDP leadership, Probe Research, Steve Ashton